Sixth generation aircraft are coming

Boeing win the latest USAF contract

Readers of my irregular excursions into aviation history will no doubt be familiar with the Republic Aviation P47 Thunderbolt. I haven’t penned a piece about it yet, but as I am still alive, there is always that possibility. However, this well known aircraft seems to have appeared under two designations- P47 and F47, the reason being that the designation letter used to denote United States fighters was altered in 1948. Prior to this date the ‘P’ designation stood for “Pursuit.” After 1948, aircraft in production were redesignated ‘F’ which represented the more obvious “Fighter.”

The reason for this brief foray into aircraft designations was because I note that Boeing has recently been awarded a contract for the design and production of the replacement for the Lockheed Martin F22 “Raptor.” The new aircraft has been given the designation “F-47,” although it is not yet named. It would appear that President Trump has declined to offer a name for the new aircraft and indicated instead that “the generals” should do this. If the generals are scratching around looking for a name, then I have a recommendation- please don’t call it “Thunderbolt 2” which is dull and would lack any originality. It is also not a good idea to pole the public in an internet based survey for a new name. When the British did this a few years ago for a new exploration ship, the most popular name turned out to be “Boaty McBoatface.” Whilst most amusing, the name was not chosen for the ship, which they called the “Sir David Attenborough.” That name was instead given to a batch of unmanned underwater exploration vehicles.

The F22 Raptor has been deployed since approximately 2002 when the first units were delivered to Edwards AFB for initial testing. The aircraft itself was a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing with Boeing supplying wings, avionics, rear fuselage and training packages. A total of 187 were supplied which was significantly below the intended number and due to the overall cost per unit being rather higher than initially intended. In the intervening period the Raptor has largely been replaced by the F35, which of course has also been supplied to western nations under the ITAR agreement, most notably to the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force who have around 140. It is expected that the Raptor will be retired from service in the early 2030s to be replaced by the subject of today’s rambling.

The program that has spawned the new F47 is the “Next Generation Air Dominance” program (or NGAD for short) which I suspect to have been the subject of quite a lot of work for some years. As we have seen before in my previous missives, it is not at all unusual for defence companies to develop new designs for products before a formal contract award. It is my feeling that this fighter development will be quite far advanced in its design- much further than perhaps some might suspect. I assert this having no more knowledge than the average individual, but as a result of looking at previous development projects about which I have written. I am drawn towards this conclusion for a number of reasons.

First- if we look at the development of the predecessor, the F22, we note that the initial development program, in some sense, commenced in 1986 when Lockheed Martin and Northrop were selected to undertake an initial program of approximately four years which resulted in the YF22 and YF23 aircraft which could then be evaluated prior to a final contract award. Both contenders clearly had well developed ideas in terms of the “nuts and bolts” of what they might deliver, which was why full scale flying aircraft were available for evaluation in only four years. Following this, the project strand of the program delivered the first aircraft in 2002- around 12 years later. Projects of this kind often over run, so I would therefore suggest that we are not likely to see an operational aircraft much before 2040.

Second, much of the development work will extend from the fifth generation fighters and the technology that they have spawned. Essentially the same companies who are working on the F47 put together the F22, so this will not be a “from scratch” project. We may reasonably assume that stealth capabilities will have improved, computer technologies and networking abilities will certainly have improved and engine technologies will have taken the next step forwards. All of this together seem likely to produce the next generation fighters’ advanced capabilities.

Therefore, we are likely to see a rather faster, more manoeuvrable, capable and powerful weapon than the F22. We can guess a little later about what exactly might be in store for the world when the F47 is finally rolled out, but for now we can take a look at some of the terms.

For example, what is a “sixth gen” fighter? Or a fifth gen fighter come to that?

Fifth generation fighters, (F22, F35, ChengDu J20) succeeded the fourth gen efforts like the Typhoon, F16 Falcon and similar aeroplanes. I should perhaps qualify this by adding that the Typhoon is not quite a fourth gen fighter, neither is it a fifth gen example, but something in between. It has the capability to bridge that gap, but cannot be considered as a long term option past 2040 in my view.

The emphasis on fighter roles in the fifth generation are essentially that they must be more stealthy, (ie to avoid being detected by radar), to be able to travel for extended periods at speeds above Mach 1 without using reheat, (a feature known as “super cruise”) and should also be capable of multiple roles, the last one of which has been on the menu for new aircraft for many years of course. This is not a complete list, but emphasises some of the most important requirements. The umbrella requirement in some sense is that Gen 5 aircraft should be able to operate both close in and at range in order to counter threats and command the airspace. This moves the requirement on somewhat over the fourth generation fighters which focussed on the dogfighting and manoeuvring capabilities of a fighter.

Sixth gen fighters don’t actually exist just yet, (we think), but are instead conceptual. A quick AI search will tell you a little about what is suspected and most of the information is fairly obvious when one considers the matter for a second. Sixth gen will be faster, stealthier, and have better supporting technology and will be able to integrate with AI as well as with what are described as “drone swarms.” They will also be, (it is suggested), self repairing and equipped with energy weapons, so perhaps the days of star wars seem to be getting closer if nothing else.

Now, you can call me a bluff old twat if you like, but I suspect that the whole, “self repairing aeroplane” line is just a bit of nonsense to try and fool the unwary. It is the most unlikely of the possibilities as I see things. Drone swarms? Yes. Better stealth capabilities? Yes. The energy weapon line also sounds somewhat plausible and might probably be deliverable within the next twenty years or so, but I do doubt the “self repairing” line.

So, to complete the thought, the outlined capabilities of the proposed F-47 are interesting in themselves, but I am particularly fascinated by the strategy behind drone swarms. It drives forward the concept of unmanned aircraft which has been a panacea of armed services for many a year. Why train pilots and then put them in harm’s way when it might be possible to retain them in a safe location? Single drone aircraft have the real advantage of being able to remain on station for many hours and then to be directed to attack with great rapidity in response to intelligence that might change minute by minute. The example of jihadi john, who was vaporised by a missile released from a predator drone as he walked to a car is a good one. Keeping a jet aloft in a waiting position in order to release a weapon would have been much more expensive, obvious and risky.

The theory of drone swarming seems to be that they would, by force of numbers, overwhelm an enemies’ defensive position. It would also be possible to hide the controlling pilot’s position in so doing and the swarm operator would also be an observer within an easy distance of the target. Thus, the safety of the F-47 pilots are preserved for any possible manned response and intelligence is gathered with great efficiency. In this way the multi role concept (attack and reconnaissance) comes together.

Anyway, the point here really is that our friends across the pond are still investing in their own defence and quite correctly viewing this matter in the long term way that they should be. Successions of US innovations in military aviation show us this and they, as a nation are largely independent in the development, manufacturing and maintenance of their armed services. UK companies support the US defence industry of course. Companies like Rolls Royce, who build the vertical thrust components for the F-35B and Martin Baker, who build the ejection seats for the F-35 are two examples. I gather that Airbus are also involved in making parts of fifth generation fighters.

There is an obvious annoyance on the part of the US that not only are the European nations relying on the US for the defence of NATO and the deterrent effect, but also in procurement. In addition, they are also relying on it for their security. It is only correct that the UK and Europe should guard their security, their borders and their people jointly and severally, but successive governments on this side of the Atlantic have signally failed to do this at almost any level.

The development of next generation fighters is just one area where the UK and Europe have fallen lamentably and inexcusably behind. If we look specifically at fifth generation fighters, only the Americans, the Russians and the Chinese manufacture and deploy them as far as I am aware.

In the UK, I note that the lack of focus on the defence of the realm has extended across not only development of new weapons and aircraft, but also over numerous successive governments and this, I suspect is not accidental. Talk of the “peace dividend” when the Berlin Wall fell was premature as many pointed out at the time and we are now at the far end of that particular piece of flawed thinking. Defence of the nation is something upon which governments should place a much higher priority on than they have done. I suggest that not doing so is criminally negligent.

The much publicised Tempest 2 would be nearly a sixth generation fighter and appears to be a joint venture between UK Italy and Japan. It is, I fear, very far in the distance in development terms and attempts to place the UK defence industry even close to the level it was at some fifty years ago would be almost impossible for (probably) a similar number of years.

Let us not forget that the UK aircraft industry was, at one stage, one of the finest in the world. Sales of military hardware accounted for millions of pounds and the industry it supported purchased much in the way of public services through taxes and levies and all without the need for a “magic money tree.” That is now a shadow of its former self.

The UK government has committed to increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP in two years or so. This really isn’t enough, particularly given the parlous state of our armed services right now. The gradual stripping away of the defence capabilities across the UK and Europe over the last forty years or so has led to the position we find ourselves in now. Perhaps this “last minute” effort may go some of the way towards helping and, at the very least, showing our allies that we are serious about defending the west, but I entertain doubts as to the veracity of the intent of our current party in power. They make promises in one breath and break them when it suits them to do so and I judge them by their actions which do not meet with their words. It is not acceptable to play fast and loose with your promises when the very defence of this realm is at stake.

Our friends in America are pissed off (if you will excuse the expression), at this and rightly so. It’s time for Europe to step up.